The Indirect Effects of Donald Trump's New Tariffs on Latin America: A Focus on Bolivian Exports

The Return of Tariffs and Their Implications for Latin America

The commercial policy of the United States has undergone significant changes in recent years, characterized by a growing trend towards protectionism, especially during the presidency of Donald Trump (2018-2020). In his new political campaign, the former president has revived proposals for tariff policies that evoke his previous commercial stance.¹ These proposals include the imposition of a base tariff on all imports and higher reciprocal tariffs on countries with which the United States maintains large trade deficits.¹ The consistency in his discourse and his previous actions suggest a high probability that these measures will be implemented, generating considerable uncertainty for global trade.

While initial attention focuses on the potential direct tariffs that the United States could impose on Latin American exports, it is crucial to analyze the indirect effects that these policies could trigger in the region.¹¹ The intricate network of world trade implies that the actions of an economy of the magnitude of the United States can generate ripple effects that affect all participants, even those that are not the direct target of the measures. These indirect effects can manifest themselves through trade diversion, the substitution of suppliers, and, especially relevant for Latin America, fluctuations in the international prices of raw materials.

This analysis will focus specifically on the Bolivian economy and its export sector, given its particular productive structure and its commercial relations.²² Bolivia's dependence on commodities exports, mainly to regional partners and China, makes it especially susceptible to changes in global demand that could be caused by US tariff policies. As an exporter of raw materials, Bolivia's economic performance is closely linked to the international prices of these products, and the tariffs imposed by a major economy like the United States on other large economies could dampen global demand, leading to a decrease in prices and, consequently, a reduction in export revenues for Bolivia.

Context and Background of Donald Trump's Tariff Policies

During his presidency between 2018 and 2020, Donald Trump implemented a series of tariff policies with the stated objective of protecting American industry and reducing the trade deficit. These measures included the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from various countries, as well as an extensive trade war with China, which involved the reciprocal application of tariffs to a wide range of products.¹ Historical evidence suggests that these policies generated significant disruptions in trade, caused price increases for American consumers, and unleashed retaliatory tariffs by other countries, which had negative economic consequences for both the United States and its trading partners. Data from that period show a reduction in bilateral trade between the United States and China in the sectors affected by tariffs, as well as an impact on GDP growth and employment in both countries.³⁹

Donald Trump's current tariff policy proposals in his new campaign show notable similarities to those implemented during his previous term.¹ A universal base tariff of 10% on all imports has been proposed, accompanied by higher reciprocal tariffs for those countries that maintain a larger trade deficit with the United States.¹ These measures recall the tariffs on steel and aluminum and the logic behind the trade war with China, although the scale of the tariffs proposed for 2025 appears to be even greater.⁴ In fact, the proposed average tariff could reach levels not seen since the Great Depression.⁴ The reiteration of these protectionist policies suggests a continuity in Trump's commercial vision, which implies that the economic effects observed in the past could be repeated and even intensified.

Mechanisms of Indirect Impact of US Tariffs on Latin America

Tariffs imposed by the United States on other nations can impact Latin America through various indirect mechanisms:

• Trade Diversion: US tariffs aimed at countries like China or others could lead to a decrease in Latin American exports to those markets.¹⁴ If these countries, facing tariffs in the United States, prioritize their domestic demand or seek new suppliers in other regions with lower costs or without the same tariff restrictions, Latin American exports could be displaced. For example, if China's growth is affected by US tariffs, its demand for Latin American commodities could decrease.²⁰ While some countries in the region could initially benefit from a diversion of trade towards the US market, they could also lose market share in other countries, such as China, if the latter reduce their overall imports or switch to alternative suppliers.²⁰ The overall negative impact on global growth could outweigh any benefits derived from trade diversion.
• Substitution of Suppliers: US tariffs could create opportunities for Latin America to become an alternative supplier of certain goods to the United States or to other countries affected by the tariffs.¹⁵ If goods from traditional suppliers (e.g., China, Southeast Asia) become more expensive due to US tariffs, buyers in the United States could look for more affordable alternatives in Latin America. Similarly, other countries could look to Latin America for sources of supply to replace goods they previously imported from nations now subject to tariffs in the United States. For example, the soybean sector in Brazil could benefit if China reduces its imports from the United States.¹⁷ However, Latin America's ability to capitalize on these opportunities will depend on its production capacity, infrastructure, and ability to meet the quality and quantity standards demanded. The benefits of this substitution of suppliers could be unevenly distributed among the countries and sectors of the region.¹³
• Effects on International Prices: US tariffs could have a significant impact on the international prices of raw materials and other basic products that Latin America exports.¹¹ The most likely mechanism for this impact is a decrease in global demand. If US tariffs cause a global economic slowdown or even a recession, the overall demand for raw materials and energy will decrease, leading to a fall in international prices. Since many Latin American economies depend heavily on commodities exports, this decrease in prices would severely affect their export revenues and economic growth. For example, a slowdown in the Chinese economy, a major consumer of raw materials, due to US tariffs could reduce demand and lower the prices of Bolivian exports such as copper and iron ore.²⁰

Considering the magnitude and scope of the tariffs proposed by Trump, it is highly probable that these indirect impact mechanisms will be reactivated and potentially amplified compared to the 2018-2020 period.¹ The proposed average tariff of 22.5% is historically very high ⁵³, which increases the risk of a global recession.⁴ The generalized nature of the base tariff and the high reciprocal tariffs on the main trading partners of the United States indicate a much broader and more aggressive trade policy than in Trump's first term. This increase in protectionism will likely generate more significant disruptions in global trade patterns and stronger effects on commodities markets, thus amplifying the indirect impacts on Latin America.

Bolivian Focus: Analysis of the Export Pattern and its Sensitivity to Indirect Tariffs

Bolivia's export pattern is characterized by a high concentration in raw materials and commodities, which makes it particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in global demand and price volatility triggered by external factors such as US tariffs. The main products that Bolivia exports include minerals such as gold, zinc, silver, and tin ²², natural gas and other hydrocarbons ²², and agricultural products such as soybeans and Brazil nuts.²² The main destinations for these exports are Brazil, India, China, and Argentina.³⁰

The following table summarizes Bolivia's main exports by product and destination during the years 2023 and 2024, based on available information:

Table 1: Main Exports of Bolivia by Product and Destination (2023-2024)

Note: Exact values and percentages may vary slightly depending on the source and the specific period within 2023-2024.

The indirect impact mechanisms could affect these trade flows as follows:

• Natural Gas: Bolivia's natural gas exports to Argentina and Brazil already show a downward trend due to the increasing self-sufficiency of these countries.⁸⁸ US tariffs affecting China's growth (a potential future market or transit route) could further reduce global energy demand, impacting gas prices. The combination of lower demand from its main partners and the possible downward pressure on global gas prices represents a significant threat to Bolivia's revenues from this hydrocarbon.
• Minerals (Gold, Zinc, Silver, Tin): Minerals constitute an important part of Bolivian exports, with China and Japan as key destinations for some of them.²² US tariffs could affect Chinese industrial demand for these minerals, and trade diversion could influence Bolivia's access to these markets. A global economic slowdown could also decrease the demand for minerals used in manufacturing. The health of the global manufacturing sector, particularly in China, is crucial for Bolivia's mineral exports. US tariffs that negatively impact global manufacturing could lead to a reduction in demand and lower prices for these exports.
• Soybeans and Derived Products: Soybeans and their derivatives (such as soybean meal) are important agricultural exports, with Argentina, Peru, and Colombia as key markets.²² US tariffs on China could lead this country to increase soybean imports from Brazil and Argentina, which could affect Bolivia's market share in the region and globally. The increase in global supply due to changes in trade patterns could also put downward pressure on prices.⁷³ Bolivia's soybean exports face increased competition and potential price pressures if global trade patterns change due to US tariffs, particularly with major producers like Brazil and Argentina that could gain an advantage in key markets like China.
• Brazil Nuts: While Brazil nuts are a smaller but relevant agricultural export ²³, the impact of US tariffs on this product is less direct, but could be affected by overall global demand and trade flows. A general economic slowdown could reduce demand for this non-essential export. A global economic downturn caused by US tariffs could negatively impact the demand for Bolivian non-essential exports such as Brazil nuts.

China's role as the main global demander of raw materials is fundamental. US tariffs that significantly harm the Chinese economy could drastically reduce China's demand for raw materials and commodities from Latin America, including Bolivia.¹⁴ A significant economic slowdown in China is projected under high tariff scenarios.⁶⁴ The possibility of a major economic slowdown in China due to US tariffs represents a great risk for Bolivia's commodities exports, given China's importance as a global consumer of raw materials.

Bolivia's commercial relations with its main regional partners, such as Brazil and Argentina, are also crucial. These countries are important trading partners for Bolivia, especially in natural gas and agricultural products.¹³ US tariffs could affect the economies of Brazil and Argentina ⁴⁷, indirectly impacting their demand for Bolivian exports. The economic vulnerability of Brazil and Argentina to US commercial policies could indirectly harm Bolivia by reducing their demand for Bolivian exports, particularly natural gas and agricultural products.

Mitigation Measures and Opportunities for Bolivia and Latin America

Latin American countries, including Bolivia, could consider various measures to mitigate the potential negative impacts of the new US tariffs. One strategy key is the diversification of markets, strengthening the commercial relations with other regions like Asia and the European Union, as well as with other countries of Latin America.¹⁵ The diversification of the destinations of export is crucial to reduce the vulnerability of Bolivia to the commercial policies of the United States and to the global economic fluctuations. This implies strengthening the bonds with the existing commercial partners and exploring new opportunities in emerging markets.

In this new scenario, emerging opportunities could arise for Bolivia. It could become an alternative supplier of raw materials or agricultural products to countries that are affected by the US tariffs.¹⁵ For example, if the exports of minerals from China to the United States are heavily tariffed, the US manufacturers could look in Bolivia for an alternative source. Bolivia could find new opportunities to increase its exports to countries that seek to reduce their dependence on goods of US origin or from countries heavily impacted by the tariffs of the United States. This requires understanding the specific products and markets affected by the tariffs.

The regional integration and the South-South cooperation are important mechanisms to strengthen the commercial position of Bolivia and other Latin American countries against external protectionist policies.¹⁶ The participation of Bolivia in regional commercial blocs and its bilateral relations with neighboring countries like Brazil and Argentina can provide a buffer against external crises and create more stable commercial environments. The strengthening of regional commercial ties and the cooperation with other South American nations can improve the economic resilience of Bolivia and provide alternative markets and supply chains, reducing the dependence on external powers with protectionist tendencies.

Final Reflections

The new tariffs proposed by Donald Trump represent a significant threat to the Bolivian economy, mainly through their indirect effects on global demand and trade patterns. Bolivia's export sector, with its strong dependence on natural gas and minerals, is particularly vulnerable to the decrease in global demand and the changes induced by tariffs in international markets.

Faced with this scenario of global commercial uncertainty, the resilience of the Bolivian and Latin American economy in general will depend on its capacity for adaptation, the diversification of markets, and the strengthening of regional integration. It is essential that Bolivia consider commercial policy strategies that promote economic diversification towards non-traditional sectors, strengthen regional integration through trade agreements and strategic alliances, and maintain a close monitoring of the evolution of US commercial policies and their impacts on the global economy. Only in this way will Bolivia be able to adapt its strategies in a timely manner and mitigate the possible adverse effects of this new international commercial landscape.

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